Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) · 2026Q2 earnings call · 31 inflection points identified
Generated 13 August 2026 · this analysis is stored and reused, so repeat visits are served instantly from cache.
Revenue trends
Overall revenue
PositiveVs expectationsOutlook
Lilly raised FY2026 revenue guidance range by $3B at the low end and $2B at the high end, to $85B-$87B, reflecting stronger-than-expected first-half performance of Key Products.
“We have increased the low end of our revenue range by $3 billion, and the high end by $2 billion”— Lucas Montarce, Chief Financial Officer
MixedDecelerationOutlook
CFO explained that implied H2 percentage growth deceleration versus Q2 reflects one-time prior-period rebate/discount estimate benefits and a 2025 OUS launch volume bolus that will not recur, not weaker underlying demand.
Per Lucas Montarce, Chief Financial Officer
Pricing power
NegativeOtherOutlook
U.S. price declined 3% in Q2, but excluding a favorable one-time change to rebate and discount estimates, underlying U.S. price decline was steeper at 9%, and this one-time benefit is not expected to recur in H2.
“Excluding these adjustments, U.S. price declined by 9%”— Lucas Montarce, Chief Financial Officer
MixedOtherOutlook
Zepbound net price is expected to decline further as CVS moves back to open formulary access, replacing the medical-exception pathway that had inflated net price, with the decline more than offset by volume growth.
“expect that price will actually go down for sure because of this... we are going to more than offset that with volume growth”— Lucas Montarce, Chief Financial Officer
Volume and demand
PositiveAccelerationOutlook
U.S. Foundayo volume nearly doubled in the last week of July versus a month earlier, marking an inflection point driven by new CVS access, the Medicare Bridge launch, and full DTC promotion.
“the last week of July, we're seeing an inflection. So we're almost doubling the volume that we had just a month ago”— Ilya Yuffa, President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities
PositiveAccelerationOutlook
The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program produced a visible inflection point in demand for both Zepbound and Foundayo over the last few weeks, with roughly 60-70% of Bridge patients being new to treatment.
“you can see an inflection point for both of our medicines, Zepbound and Foundayo, over the last few weeks”— Ilya Yuffa, President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities
PositiveAcceleration
Lilly's global incretin market share increased by nearly 2 percentage points versus Q1 2026, reaching approximately 55%, indicating an acceleration in international share gains.
“we strengthened that position, gaining almost 2 percentage points of share compared to Q1 2026, reaching approximately 55%”— Lucas Montarce, Chief Financial Officer
PositiveAcceleration
Foundayo's U.S. prescriber base grew sharply from about 8,000 last quarter to 36,000, indicating rapidly accelerating physician adoption ahead of broader consumer marketing.
“we talked about 8,000 prescribers. We've now increased that to 36,000 prescribers”— Ilya Yuffa, President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities
Lilly's CEO shared optimistic growth prospects for its oral weight-loss drug Foundayo, citing strong traction. LLY Looks 24.6% Undervalued on GF Value™ as Oral Obesity Drug Gains Traction — gurufocus.com · 21 September 2026
New markets
PositiveNew development
Mounjaro is now reimbursed in France for both type 2 diabetes and obesity, representing incremental progress in securing reimbursed access outside the U.S.
“Mounjaro is now reimbursed for both type 2 diabetes and obesity in France”— Lucas Montarce, Chief Financial Officer
PositiveNew developmentOutlook
Early Foundayo uptake in the UAE has been encouraging, revealing pent-up demand for oral obesity treatment outside the U.S. ahead of a planned major global rollout in 2027.
“Early uptake in the UAE has been encouraging, demonstrating the pent-up demand for Foundayo to treat obesity outside the U.S.”— David Ricks, Chair and CEO
New products
PositiveNew developmentOutlook
All three retatrutide TRIUMPH Phase 3 trials read out positively, giving Lilly a complete data package to support global registrations in obesity, obstructive sleep apnea, and knee osteoarthritis pain, with U.S. submission planned Q1 2027.
“we now have the clinical data package to support global registrations in obesity, obstructive sleep apnea, and knee osteoarthritis pain”— Daniel Skovronsky, Chief Scientific and Product Officer
PositiveRecord or first
Orforglipron's ACHIEVE-3 trial was the first head-to-head comparison of two oral GLP-1s and showed superior glycemic control and weight reduction versus oral semaglutide, a new competitive data point.
“ACHIEVE-3 was the first head-to-head comparison of two oral GLP-1s, and orforglipron delivered superior glycemic control and weight reduction”— Daniel Skovronsky, Chief Scientific and Product Officer
PositiveRecord or first
Adding pirtobrutinib to fixed-duration venetoclax/rituximab in CLL was the first regimen to outperform a venetoclax-containing control arm in a Phase 3 CLL trial, potentially establishing a new standard of care.
“These results are the first to outperform a venetoclax-containing control arm in a CLL Phase 3 trial”— Daniel Skovronsky, Chief Scientific and Product Officer
PositiveRecord or first
Selpercatinib's LIBRETTO-432 adjuvant lung cancer trial showed an 83% reduction in recurrence or death risk versus placebo, an effect size management called striking and presented at ASCO's Plenary Session.
“showed that selpercatinib reduced the risk of disease recurrence or death by 83% versus placebo”— Daniel Skovronsky, Chief Scientific and Product Officer
UnclearVs expectationsOutlook
Retatrutide's regulatory path as a BLA remains contested after a mixed initial court decision in active litigation with the FDA; Lilly still expects to submit by Q1 2027 pending additional CMC data.
“There was a mixed decision in the first decision in the court”— David Ricks, Chair and CEO
PositiveNew developmentOutlook
Early Phase 1b data for gene-editing candidate VERVE-102 showed an 88% reduction in PCSK9 and 62% reduction in LDL cholesterol after a single infusion, suggesting potential for a one-time, durable cardiovascular therapy.
Per Daniel Skovronsky, Chief Scientific and Product Officer
PositiveRecord or firstOutlook
FDA approved a new less-frequent maintenance dosing option (once every 8 weeks) for Ebglyss in atopic dermatitis, the first extended-interval option for the drug, with even less frequent 12-week dosing data expected in 2027.
Per David Ricks, Chair and CEO
PositiveNew developmentOutlook
CHMP issued a positive opinion recommending EU approval of once-weekly insulin efsitora alfa for type 2 diabetes, moving the first weekly basal insulin option closer to market versus daily dosing regimens.
Per Daniel Skovronsky, Chief Scientific and Product Officer
Industry and competitiveness
Competitive dynamics
PositiveVs expectations
Despite a second oral GLP-1 competitor entering the UAE market, Lilly's combined incretin share held steady, a stronger-than-expected competitive outcome for Foundayo's first ex-U.S. launch.
“Lilly's combined incretin share, it held steady, even if we had a second oral entering the market”— Patrik Jonsson, President, Lilly International
PositiveVs expectations
Following generic semaglutide launches in India and Brazil, Mounjaro TRx growth has continued rather than slowing, aided by generic manufacturers facing significant supply constraints that management is monitoring closely.
“we have also seen the generic companies actually having significant supply constraints”— Patrik Jonsson, President, Lilly International
PositiveVs expectations
In Canada, tirzepatide TRx growth has kept pace with total market growth even after generic entry, a result management described as pleasantly surprising versus expectations of share erosion.
“we have also been pleasantly surprised with what we see in Canada, where actually the tirzepatide TRx continue to grow with the same pace as total market TRx”— Patrik Jonsson, President, Lilly International
Industry pricing
No significant change or new commentary noted.
Regulatory environment
PositiveNew development
A new Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program launched July 1 in partnership with the U.S. government, extending obesity drug coverage to 20 million eligible Americans at $50/month, expanding total U.S. coverage by 35%.
“granting 20 million eligible Americans insurance coverage for GLP-1s for obesity at the low out-of-pocket price of $50 per month”— David Ricks, Chair and CEO
Capital allocation
Share repurchases
No significant change or new commentary noted.
Dividends
No significant change or new commentary noted.
M&A
PositiveNew developmentOutlook
Lilly announced acquisitions of Curevo, LimmaTech Biologics, and the Vaccine Company to build a new infectious disease vaccine platform, a strategic entry into a therapeutic area beyond its core focus.
“building a platform of potential new medicines to prevent infectious disease and their downstream complications”— David Ricks, Chair and CEO
PositiveNew developmentOutlook
Lilly announced the acquisition of AtaiBeckley to enter treatment-resistant depression and mental health, a new strategic push into psychiatry via rapid-acting neuroplastogen BPL-003.
Per David Ricks, Chair and CEO
PositiveAccelerationOutlook
Management noted business development pace and average deal size have continued to increase over recent years, signaling an accelerating and more active M&A strategy going forward while maintaining valuation discipline.
“We have been increasingly active in business development over the last several years. The pace and average deal size have also continued to increase”— Daniel Skovronsky, Chief Scientific and Product Officer
Capital expenditure
PositiveRecord or first
Lilly opened its first dedicated genetic medicine manufacturing facility in Lebanon, Indiana, a first-of-its-kind capacity addition supporting its genetic medicine pipeline.
“opened our first dedicated genetic medicine manufacturing facility in Lebanon, Indiana”— David Ricks, Chair and CEO
PositiveRecord or first
Lilly produced its first batch of commercial material at the new Limerick, Ireland manufacturing site, marking a milestone in the ongoing manufacturing capacity build-out.
“we also produced the first batch of commercial material at our new manufacturing site in Limerick, Ireland”— David Ricks, Chair and CEO